Monday, October 20, 2008

Plain Sailing Not

Along with the rest of the flotilla, people who managed to build their own seacraft went along the adventure to mine gold and capture slaves. Their intention was to ravage whatever they manage to land their hands on.

To move as quickly as possible from point to point, they designed their craft to be able to take in lots of water to lower their centres of gravity. Many people were also not the least interested to know if their craft were sea-worthy; they believed calm seas and excellent weather will prevail indefinitely.

As the fleet travel around to plunder, the captains had not watched the tides. They had not upkept their vessels. They did not watch the exact capacity their craft can withstand. They loaned big time to undertake voyages way beyond their ken. They had even forgotten that people were beginning to treat them like pillaging pirates.

And as luck would have it, the entire fleet ran aground on a sand bank as they were navigating a treacherous stretch of narrow waterway with erratic tides. And as luck would have it, the tides started going out.

Thinking that the tides would soon return, people urged their captains to unload the water in the vessel holds. The added water allowed limited movement but this gave the people onboard renewed hopes. Even without reaching their destination, they plundered "offline" from their boats. They shortsold, overbought, essentially trading nothing for money. Everyone still hoped to make a quick one.

As the water levels receded further than expected, people in the trapped vessels are begin to worry. Still they were still frantically plundering continually. They made the captains release whatever water there is in the hull. Alas, the ebbing tides prevailed - the water is all drawn out with the tide. Left high and dry, these "pirates" now expect the littoral states to siphon their water to fill the straits so that they can move off again.

When the surrounding area ran out of water and the waterway was nonetheless dry, the pillagers expect the states to now go around the world to procure water to set them a-sail again.

What they have forgotten is tides ebb and flow. One cannot mess with nature. Once it is time, the natural state will be restored.

Instead of complaining and whining, the bandits should simply divest their gains in exchange for food and water to stay alive on their craft. They should not feel wronged for it was by their free will that they had chosen such a path. However, they pointed fingers at others for their misery. Without spending a single cent, they expect to be fed, clothed and given spending money. Worse, most wanted to live like kings regardless of the current condition.

The way I see it, the littoral states have been complete morons to drain their lakes and channel their water sources to attempt to re-flood the water way. There is no way to do that now. What they should have done earlier was to have stopped these opportunists from stripping them of their resources in exchange for more "returns".

Any system that is overrun by human greed ought to be punished. If the righteous and the honest (and perhaps too the timid) are not complaining here, why should people who have made their lives so miserable be complaining?

Why should anyone bail out your poorly performing investments? Everyone who invests should know the risk they are taking. Ignorance is not an acceptable defence.

Don't expect anyone to bail you out. No one has the moral obligation to do so. Even if they could, they should not. After all, did you spread your wealth around when we were in the heights of your pillaging?

I take little comfort to be in a position like this. But I do know that when you play big, be ready to lose big. And take it like a big boy.

14 comments:

Sunit said...

any chance the pillaging captain was in the current republican vp candidate mould?

Anonymous said...

Ar'm nort shore. Maiyee foreign policy experience is not veree good because I don't stay near Russia.

But I noh Sarah. And I particulerly don't like others impaling maiyee fellow pretty sister this way...

Yah...

The probligo said...

Tef, I can agree with your general sentiment.

The truth is that the pirate captain was not the only one run aground, nor was he the only pirate in the channel.

I have little to no doubt that most of the major banks, from Citigroup and Lehman to HSBC and ASB, had their little "trading departments".

What b*****s me the most is that it is my money, your money that these pirates have been having their little games with.

So, if you go leave the pirates high and dry, do I get my money back? Do you?

No we do not.

So, the losers are not the banks that "lost" the money.

The "losers" are you and me and all the others who lent our money to the banks (that is what your bank account is) in the mistaken belief that it would be comparatively safe from the pirates.

That is the reality of it - the political realities hitch in after as governments realise that allowing the banking system to collapse would have some real hard consequences. Perhaps it is right that it should? Al and his discussion on government intervention being the cause (I dont have the intellectual capability to prove that to someone like MK) is up the creek completely.

If there is no control, some people will take advantage for their own gain. That is what has been happening.

Anonymous said...

You miss my point - I have never imagined that the banks were the good guys. The banks and all other investment instruments are all pirates. And investors who place their investments with pirates ought to know better.

My stand has been clear: We should not bail out the bad investments but I had never said anything about protecting basic bank deposits. The latter, I am fully in agreement that it has to be guaranteed by the government.

But a mentality where you use money to "roll" money (note: not everyone can afford to do that) and when something goes awry, you expect to be saved is plain wrong.

If your bank savings were basic savings, then you should get every cent back. If your investments are in the Lehman Bro categories, I'm afraid I'll have to dig in real deep to try and find some sympathies.

Sigh... When will people ever learn that whatever looks too good to be true probably is.

The probligo said...

Whew!! We do agree.

I shall sit back in the knowledge that at least for now the numerical value of my bank savings is protected. Note "numerical" value is different from "purchasing" value.

Anonymous said...

Oh, does that mean I have gone over to the dark side, Probligo?

Anonymous said...

People who bought Lehman Brother minibonds were only trying to earn enough interest to beat inflation. Even allowed SRS money to be used to buy it. Is that considered greedy?

The probligo said...

Tef, no, but mebbe I have... :P

Shade, that is exactly the kind of dilemma that I have been talking of. If the US had implemented a deposit guarantee mechanism, those poeple might have come out the other end with their deposit intact.

As it is, they got nothing. They are the ones "paying" for the gambling habits of their bank.

Google "Bastards are We" ... And that was 1932.

The probligo said...

Here y' go...

Four Prominent Bastards
(Ogden Nash)

I'm an autocratic figure in these democratic states
A dandy demonstration of hereditary traits.
As the children of the baker make the most delicious breads
And the sons of Casanova fill the most exclusive beds,
And the Barrymores and Roosevelts and others I could name
Inherited the features that perpetuate their fame,
My position in the structure of society I owe
To the qualities my parents bequeathed me long ago.
Now, my father was a gentleman, and musical, to boot;
He used to play piano in a house of ill repute.
My mother was the madam, and a credit to her cult
She liked my daddy's playing, and I was the result.
So my mammy and my daddy are the ones I've got to thank,
I'm the chairman of the board of the National City Bank.

cho: Our parents forgot to get married
Our parents forgot to get wed;
Did a wedding bell chime, that was always a time
They were somewhere off in bed.
So it's thanks to our kind-hearted parents
We're kings in this land of the free
The banker, the broker, the Washington joker
Three prominent bastards are we.

In a cozy little cottage, in a cozy little dell
A dear old-fashioned farmer and his daughter used to dwell.
She was pretty, she was charming, she was tender, she was mild
And her sympathies were such that she was frequently with child.
The year her hospitality attained a record high
She found herself the mother of an infant, which was I.
And whenever she was gloomy I could always make her grin
By childishly inquiring who my daddy might have been.
Now the hired man was favored by the gals of mammy's set
And the traveling man from Scranton was an even-money bet,
But such were mammy motives, and such was her allure
That even Roger Babson wasn't altogether sure.
So I took my mammy's morals and I took my daddy's crust
And I grew to be the founder of a big investment trust.

On a dusty southern chain-gang, on a dusty southern road
My late-lamented pappy made his permanent abode,
Now while some was there for stealing, my pappy's only fault
Was an overwhelming weakness for criminal assault.
His philosophy was simple, and free of moral tape,
"Seduction is for sissies; a he-man wants his rape!"
Pappy's total list of victims was embarrassingly rich
And though one of them was mammy, still he could not tell me which.
Well I never went to college, but I got me a degree,
I guess I am the model of a perfect S.O.B,
I'm a debit to my country, but a credit to my dad,
The most expensive senator this country ever had.
I remember pappy's telling me, "Boy, rapin' is a crime
Unless you rape the voters, a million at a time."

I'm an ordinary figure in these democratic states,
A pathetic demonstration of hereditary traits.
As the children of the cops possess the flattest kind of feet
And the daughter of the floozie has a waggle to seat,
My position in the basement of society I owe
To the qualities my parents bequeathed me long ago.
Now, my father was a married man, and what is even more
He was married to my mother, a fact that I deplore
I was born in holy wedlock, consequently bye and bye
I got rooked by every bastard with plunder in his eye.
I invested, I deposited, I voted every fall
Did I ever get a penny saved, those bastards took it all.
Well, at last I've learned my lesson, and I'm on the proper track
I'm a self-appointed bastard, and I'm gonna get it back.

final cho:
Our parents forgot to get married
Our parents forgot to get wed;
Did a wedding bell chime, that was always a time
They were somewhere off in bed.
So it's thanks to our kind-hearted parents
We're kings in this land of the free
The banker, the broker, the Washington joker
Three prominent bastards --- and me,
The banker, the broker, the joker and me
Four prominent bastards are we.

BTW Nash always denied writing it.

Anonymous said...

Shade,

Yes, they are greedy and they well-deserved every moment of it.

1. SRS funds are released because people were clamouring for it. They complained that the gahmen was paying too low an interest rate. They loaned to a loanshark disguised as a bank. The loanshark ran away. Good luck!

2. Attempting to beat inflation is akin to running westwards so that you can live in perpetual daylight. Alas, the sun will set faster than you can run. Only morons would do that.

3. I am terribly disappointed with the decision by the 3 investment companies in Singapore attempting to do selective refunds. So what if you are old and dumb or young and dumb or old and rich... The important thing is to determine if criminal intent was present. If people chose to invest despite knowing the risks, they should not get a cent back. But if they were tricked into investing, it is a different story.

Anonymous said...

1)Nope, I disagree that they were clamouring for it. Everyone knows that SRS money can be used only for extremely low risk and safe investment. CPF has made clear that if you want to invest in high risk stuff, you can meddle with your OA and SA. SRS is reserved for low risk. Tell me, how can structured products come close to being "extremely low risk and safe"? I say CPF should step out and explain why LB Minibonds were given the SRS chop of approval. And the suspicious thing was, only series 1 and 2 had the chop of approval. Subsequent series were not SRS approved. Somebody in CPF not doing their job?

And besides the 3.5% interest given by CPF is not even enough to beat the inflation of 6.7% in Singapore. So what greed is present here?

2)You seem against the idea of beating inflation, are you suggesting we should all take a passive approach and allow inflation to eat into our savings and shrink our purchase power? Or perhaps the government should increase our OA interest to 6.7%? Lets not forget that the impetus for the rise in inflation was caused by the GST hike.

3)Those 3 banks did the right thing. If Hong Kong banks can all compensate holders of teh LB minibonds, I dont see why Singapore cant follow suit and do the right thing. Even if no criminal intent was present, they should not have marketed and represent the minibonds as a safe product comparable to a fixed deposit. Thats why many people invested their FD and SRS into it. Thats what they were told. And thats why they need to be compensated.

Anonymous said...

1) Singaporeans all think they can make their investments do better (especially during good times) thank the government. Therefore, when times are good, all of them will be screaming at the government's conservative returns and demand that they get access to their funds - regardless of whatever funds - for investments. Why do the same Singaporeans not clamour for the same monies to be released for investment in the sharemarket now? The market is so over corrected that anything you buy will turn into a huge pile 5 to 7 years on! Economies move in cycles. I'm starting my share shopping spree for the coming 3 months.

Whether or not SRS should be reserved for clearly safe products is anyone's call. Who in the world would market their product as unsafe? People have to think for themselves. Risk vs returns. If you believe that 5% returns justify the risks, then go ahead. What was SRS paying, 4%? You do the sums.

The 6% - 7% inflation rates were a recent thing. For a long time, inflation was about 2.1% - 2.5%. It is not a valid argumentation technique to abuse evidence this way. Furthermore, most of such investments were probably done much longer before the recent inflation, brought about by the increase in GST, oil and other prices. It's a collective world problem and should not be viewed singly.

2) Inflation is inevitable. No one can fight inflation, just like no one can fight aging. In line with inflation, there is wage increase to help workers deal with it. Yes, inflation can outstrip real wage increase and erode your spending power. But if you want to maintain purchasing and monetary par, you've got to increase productivity or deliver goods/services. Using money to bankroll more money is going to cause worse inflation.

It is the reckless investor who has driven up oil prices. It is the people who believe that money alone can generate more money that pressured the system into an initial over-drive. Financial systems are like your body's circulatory system. If you need to enhance your performance, you can either (i) exercise and increase stamina, lung capacity (hard work!), or resort to illegal means such as taking steriod or transfusing more blood into yourself (easier). In the end, you know what you are going to get. I will only take up a fight if the insurance policies I take out for myself are in jeopardy. The rest are opportunistic and opportunities come and go. Things go awry. Not everyday can be a Sunday!

Anonymous said...

3) Right or wrong is a matter of perspective. If depositors make a run on the banks because they deem the funds used to staunch the bleed is going to affect the security of the deposits, then we can at least now take comfort that the gahmen has guaranteed our deposits. But where did the funds from the guarantee come from? Honest taxpayers like me who live prudently within my means - inflation or not. I don't go out to invest more than my risk appetite allows me. And if my investments go bad, so be it. Learn the lesson and move on.

No one in life can make all the mistakes themselves. Learn the lessons vicariously through others and then move on to more noble stuff. Be thankful that among us, there are losers who will be making the majority of the bad and poor decisions, so that through their well-deserved misery (surely most of these people must be able to afford such mistakes - I don't see a poor folk on social welfare investing his welfare payouts on Lehman!) we learn our precious lessons.

In any system where gains are built on intangible stuff, people MUST expect to be burnt. There are always a million reasons for making those decisions in the first place and just as many for not making those decisions.

On either side of the fence, people rejoice (or lament) their (lack of) gains. I guess this is how people learn financial prudence and what their true risk appetite really is.

Just like lunches, there are no free lessons; someone has to pay.

Eugene Tan said...

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